Bitcoin se dispara tras soporte clave: ¿rebote o trampa para osos?

Bitcoin Rebound: Rally or Bear Trap?

Bitcoin has surged 4% from the $64,000 support, fueled by record institutional inflows into US spot ETFs and a slightly dovish Fed. However, the rally is met with caution as derivatives data shows a neutral market, making the $70,000 resistance the key test for a sustained trend change.

• BTC bounces +4% from $64k support, driven by record ETF inflows.
• Technical indicators show a potential short-term trend shift, but $70k is the critical resistance.
• Derivatives data is mixed: open interest spikes, but funding rates remain neutral, indicating no overheating.

Key Drivers & Technicals

The immediate catalyst was the Fed minutes, interpreted as dovish, weakening the dollar. Simultaneously, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their third-largest net inflow day, led by BlackRock's IBIT. This institutional flow is structurally bullish, removing supply from the market.

Technically, BTC/USD broke intraday resistance with 35% above-average volume. The 4-hour chart shows higher lows, and a potential 'golden cross' is forming. The daily MACD has turned bullish, but the RSI still faces a downward trendline. The psychological $70,000 resistance, coinciding with a 61.8% Fibonacci level, is the defining barrier for a sustainable trend change.

Fundamental & Market Outlook

Fundamentally, Bitcoin's narrative as a digital store of value strengthens. Post-halving, the annualized inflation rate is below 1%, and on-chain metrics show exchange balances at 5-year lows, reducing liquidity for sell-offs. Bitcoin's market dominance is at 54%, signaling capital rotation into BTC.

The most likely scenario (45% probability) is a consolidation between $64,500 and $68,500. An upside scenario (35%) requires a breakout above $70k with volume. A downside scenario (20%) could be triggered by sudden ETF outflows or negative regulatory news. The composite signal is a tactical BUY, but a confirmed trend change requires a daily close above $70,000.